Current trader consensus around 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft for the Great Salt Lake’s 2026 low reflects the lake’s present south-arm elevation near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (USGS Saltair gauge, September 2026) amid ongoing seasonal decline and modest stabilization from conservation inflows. Evaporation rates, driven by temperature, humidity, salinity, and surface area, continue to outpace inflows from snowmelt and tributaries in this semi-arid basin, while human diversions remain the dominant long-term depletion factor. The closely matched 37.5% probability on 4,189.7 ft or higher hinges on whether late-2026 precipitation or additional conserved water can offset further drawdown before year-end, versus the 25% chance of dropping below 4,189.3 ft if drier conditions accelerate losses. North- and south-arm separation and salinity gradients add measurement variability, but official USGS data and water-year projections indicate the outcome will turn on remaining hydrologic balance rather than new record lows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年大盐湖最低海拔？
2026年大盐湖最低海拔？
4,189.7英尺或以上 31%
低于4,189.3英尺 25%
4,189.3或4,189.4英尺 20%
4,189.5或4,189.6英尺 0
最新
最新
2027-01-01
低于4,189.3英尺
25%
4,189.3或4,189.4英尺
20%
4,189.5或4,189.6英尺
42%
4,189.7英尺或以上
38%
4,189.7英尺或以上 31%
低于4,189.3英尺 25%
4,189.3或4,189.4英尺 20%
4,189.5或4,189.6英尺 0
最新
最新
2027-01-01
低于4,189.3英尺
$0 交易量
25%
4,189.3或4,189.4英尺
$0 交易量
20%
4,189.5或4,189.6英尺
$60 交易量
42%
4,189.7英尺或以上
$62 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdbCurrent trader consensus around 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft for the Great Salt Lake’s 2026 low reflects the lake’s present south-arm elevation near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (USGS Saltair gauge, September 2026) amid ongoing seasonal decline and modest stabilization from conservation inflows. Evaporation rates, driven by temperature, humidity, salinity, and surface area, continue to outpace inflows from snowmelt and tributaries in this semi-arid basin, while human diversions remain the dominant long-term depletion factor. The closely matched 37.5% probability on 4,189.7 ft or higher hinges on whether late-2026 precipitation or additional conserved water can offset further drawdown before year-end, versus the 25% chance of dropping below 4,189.3 ft if drier conditions accelerate losses. North- and south-arm separation and salinity gradients add measurement variability, but official USGS data and water-year projections indicate the outcome will turn on remaining hydrologic balance rather than new record lows.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$122结束日期
2027-01-02市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdbCurrent trader consensus around 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft for the Great Salt Lake’s 2026 low reflects the lake’s present south-arm elevation near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (USGS Saltair gauge, September 2026) amid ongoing seasonal decline and modest stabilization from conservation inflows. Evaporation rates, driven by temperature, humidity, salinity, and surface area, continue to outpace inflows from snowmelt and tributaries in this semi-arid basin, while human diversions remain the dominant long-term depletion factor. The closely matched 37.5% probability on 4,189.7 ft or higher hinges on whether late-2026 precipitation or additional conserved water can offset further drawdown before year-end, versus the 25% chance of dropping below 4,189.3 ft if drier conditions accelerate losses. North- and south-arm separation and salinity gradients add measurement variability, but official USGS data and water-year projections indicate the outcome will turn on remaining hydrologic balance rather than new record lows.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
交易量
$122结束日期
2027-01-02市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETCurrent trader consensus around 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft for the Great Salt Lake’s 2026 low reflects the lake’s present south-arm elevation near 4,189.8–4,189.9 ft (USGS Saltair gauge, September 2026) amid ongoing seasonal decline and modest stabilization from conservation inflows. Evaporation rates, driven by temperature, humidity, salinity, and surface area, continue to outpace inflows from snowmelt and tributaries in this semi-arid basin, while human diversions remain the dominant long-term depletion factor. The closely matched 37.5% probability on 4,189.7 ft or higher hinges on whether late-2026 precipitation or additional conserved water can offset further drawdown before year-end, versus the 25% chance of dropping below 4,189.3 ft if drier conditions accelerate losses. North- and south-arm separation and salinity gradients add measurement variability, but official USGS data and water-year projections indicate the outcome will turn on remaining hydrologic balance rather than new record lows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题