Recent forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate overnight lows in Jinan on August 24 will likely remain near 25–27°C amid a warm, humid air mass and frequent thunderstorm activity. Persistent cloud cover and high dew points limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures well above seasonal norms for late August. This supports the 55% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher as the dominant outcome, while colder thresholds reflect low likelihood absent an unexpected frontal passage or model shift in the final forecast updates.