Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月25日广州气温最高？
8月25日广州气温最高？
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
34°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
25°C或以下
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
11%
30°C
12%
31°C
21%
32°C
27%
33°C
24%
34°C
13%
35°C或更高
11%
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
34°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
25°C或以下
$10 交易量
1%
26°C
$0 交易量
2%
27°C
$0 交易量
2%
28°C
$122 交易量
7%
29°C
$0 交易量
11%
30°C
$2 交易量
12%
31°C
$0 交易量
21%
32°C
$0 交易量
27%
33°C
$0 交易量
24%
34°C
$0 交易量
13%
35°C或更高
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$134结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$134结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题