Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station confirm the daily minimum temperature reached 17°C around 5 a.m. local time on May 4, 2026, with subsequent hourly readings climbing amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that limited radiative cooling. This locks in near-certain trader consensus, as reflected in the 100% implied probability, supported by JMA's short-range mesoscale models forecasting exactly this mild low under a stable high-pressure ridge and warmer-than-average air mass over the Kanto Plain—elevated by urban heat island effects. Early May historical lows typically range 14–16°C, but cloud cover overnight suppressed further drops. JMA's daily summary, due later today, offers final verification; only an improbable data correction or unrecorded microclimate dip could shift it.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
17°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$22,170 交易量
$22,170 交易量
2026-05-04
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$22,170 交易量
$22,170 交易量
2026-05-04
14°C or below
$4,189 交易量
No
15°C
$2,573 交易量
No
16°C
$2,297 交易量
No
17°C
$2,904 交易量
Yes
18°C
$1,411 交易量
No
19°C
$5,659 交易量
No
20°C
$562 交易量
No
21°C
$415 交易量
No
22°C
$445 交易量
No
23°C
$1,419 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$295 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station confirm the daily minimum temperature reached 17°C around 5 a.m. local time on May 4, 2026, with subsequent hourly readings climbing amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that limited radiative cooling. This locks in near-certain trader consensus, as reflected in the 100% implied probability, supported by JMA's short-range mesoscale models forecasting exactly this mild low under a stable high-pressure ridge and warmer-than-average air mass over the Kanto Plain—elevated by urban heat island effects. Early May historical lows typically range 14–16°C, but cloud cover overnight suppressed further drops. JMA's daily summary, due later today, offers final verification; only an improbable data correction or unrecorded microclimate dip could shift it.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$22,170结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station confirm the daily minimum temperature reached 17°C around 5 a.m. local time on May 4, 2026, with subsequent hourly readings climbing amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that limited radiative cooling. This locks in near-certain trader consensus, as reflected in the 100% implied probability, supported by JMA's short-range mesoscale models forecasting exactly this mild low under a stable high-pressure ridge and warmer-than-average air mass over the Kanto Plain—elevated by urban heat island effects. Early May historical lows typically range 14–16°C, but cloud cover overnight suppressed further drops. JMA's daily summary, due later today, offers final verification; only an improbable data correction or unrecorded microclimate dip could shift it.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$22,170结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's central station confirm the daily minimum temperature reached 17°C around 5 a.m. local time on May 4, 2026, with subsequent hourly readings climbing amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that limited radiative cooling. This locks in near-certain trader consensus, as reflected in the 100% implied probability, supported by JMA's short-range mesoscale models forecasting exactly this mild low under a stable high-pressure ridge and warmer-than-average air mass over the Kanto Plain—elevated by urban heat island effects. Early May historical lows typically range 14–16°C, but cloud cover overnight suppressed further drops. JMA's daily summary, due later today, offers final verification; only an improbable data correction or unrecorded microclimate dip could shift it.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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