Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 35-38m range for Michael's third-weekend domestic box office at 46%, a slim edge over >38m at 36.4%, reflecting a projected 30-35% drop from the biopic's robust $54.4m second-weekend hold—a better-than-expected -44% decline from its record-shattering $97m opening despite middling critic scores. Fan-driven word-of-mouth and high audience reception have fueled impressive legs, with domestic cumulative nearing $195m after 12 days on a $155m budget, but front-loaded biopic dynamics and competition from holdovers like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie introduce uncertainty. Key swing factors include Friday presales and tracking updates ahead of May 8-10, where sustained family turnout could push toward 40m-plus or heavier drops cap it lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于“迈克尔”第三周末票房
“迈克尔”第三周末票房
3500万-3800万 46.1%
>3800万 36.0%
3200万-3500万 16%
低于3200万 5%
最新
$37,081 交易量
最新
$37,081 交易量
2026-05-11
低于3200万
5%
3200万-3500万
16%
3500万-3800万
46%
>3800万
36%
3500万-3800万 46.1%
>3800万 36.0%
3200万-3500万 16%
低于3200万 5%
最新
$37,081 交易量
最新
$37,081 交易量
2026-05-11
低于3200万
$20,797 交易量
5%
3200万-3500万
$5,827 交易量
16%
3500万-3800万
$2,927 交易量
46%
>3800万
$7,530 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 35-38m range for Michael's third-weekend domestic box office at 46%, a slim edge over >38m at 36.4%, reflecting a projected 30-35% drop from the biopic's robust $54.4m second-weekend hold—a better-than-expected -44% decline from its record-shattering $97m opening despite middling critic scores. Fan-driven word-of-mouth and high audience reception have fueled impressive legs, with domestic cumulative nearing $195m after 12 days on a $155m budget, but front-loaded biopic dynamics and competition from holdovers like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie introduce uncertainty. Key swing factors include Friday presales and tracking updates ahead of May 8-10, where sustained family turnout could push toward 40m-plus or heavier drops cap it lower.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
交易量
$37,081结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 35-38m range for Michael's third-weekend domestic box office at 46%, a slim edge over >38m at 36.4%, reflecting a projected 30-35% drop from the biopic's robust $54.4m second-weekend hold—a better-than-expected -44% decline from its record-shattering $97m opening despite middling critic scores. Fan-driven word-of-mouth and high audience reception have fueled impressive legs, with domestic cumulative nearing $195m after 12 days on a $155m budget, but front-loaded biopic dynamics and competition from holdovers like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie introduce uncertainty. Key swing factors include Friday presales and tracking updates ahead of May 8-10, where sustained family turnout could push toward 40m-plus or heavier drops cap it lower.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$37,081结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 35-38m range for Michael's third-weekend domestic box office at 46%, a slim edge over >38m at 36.4%, reflecting a projected 30-35% drop from the biopic's robust $54.4m second-weekend hold—a better-than-expected -44% decline from its record-shattering $97m opening despite middling critic scores. Fan-driven word-of-mouth and high audience reception have fueled impressive legs, with domestic cumulative nearing $195m after 12 days on a $155m budget, but front-loaded biopic dynamics and competition from holdovers like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie introduce uncertainty. Key swing factors include Friday presales and tracking updates ahead of May 8-10, where sustained family turnout could push toward 40m-plus or heavier drops cap it lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题