Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 6,000-6,500 US flight delays for March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by FAA-reported thunderstorms triggering severe ground delay programs at Chicago O'Hare (average 206 minutes) and Midway, plus ground stops at Newark due to staffing and departure delays at Philadelphia. Northeast winds are disrupting New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR) and Las Vegas, while San Francisco faces arrival restrictions from runway repaving. These localized disruptions at major hubs, following yesterday's roughly 5,300 delays per FlightAware, elevate expectations above recent averages of 5,000-6,000, with no widespread storms but potential for further escalation into evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于6,000-6,500 56%
5,500-6,000 42%
6,500-7,000 42%
7,000-7,500 27%
$788 交易量
$788 交易量
2026-03-31
<5,000
9%
5,000-5,500
21%
5,500-6,000
42%
6,000-6,500
56%
6,500-7,000
42%
7,000-7,500
27%
7,500-8,000
18%
>8,000
11%
6,000-6,500 56%
5,500-6,000 42%
6,500-7,000 42%
7,000-7,500 27%
$788 交易量
$788 交易量
2026-03-31
<5,000
$431 交易量
9%
5,000-5,500
$255 交易量
21%
5,500-6,000
$0 交易量
42%
6,000-6,500
$0 交易量
56%
6,500-7,000
$0 交易量
42%
7,000-7,500
$0 交易量
27%
7,500-8,000
$20 交易量
18%
>8,000
$82 交易量
11%
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 6,000-6,500 US flight delays for March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by FAA-reported thunderstorms triggering severe ground delay programs at Chicago O'Hare (average 206 minutes) and Midway, plus ground stops at Newark due to staffing and departure delays at Philadelphia. Northeast winds are disrupting New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR) and Las Vegas, while San Francisco faces arrival restrictions from runway repaving. These localized disruptions at major hubs, following yesterday's roughly 5,300 delays per FlightAware, elevate expectations above recent averages of 5,000-6,000, with no widespread storms but potential for further escalation into evening.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$788结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 6,000-6,500 US flight delays for March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by FAA-reported thunderstorms triggering severe ground delay programs at Chicago O'Hare (average 206 minutes) and Midway, plus ground stops at Newark due to staffing and departure delays at Philadelphia. Northeast winds are disrupting New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR) and Las Vegas, while San Francisco faces arrival restrictions from runway repaving. These localized disruptions at major hubs, following yesterday's roughly 5,300 delays per FlightAware, elevate expectations above recent averages of 5,000-6,000, with no widespread storms but potential for further escalation into evening.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
交易量
$788结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket centers around 6,000-6,500 US flight delays for March 31 at 56.5% implied probability, driven by FAA-reported thunderstorms triggering severe ground delay programs at Chicago O'Hare (average 206 minutes) and Midway, plus ground stops at Newark due to staffing and departure delays at Philadelphia. Northeast winds are disrupting New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR) and Las Vegas, while San Francisco faces arrival restrictions from runway repaving. These localized disruptions at major hubs, following yesterday's roughly 5,300 delays per FlightAware, elevate expectations above recent averages of 5,000-6,000, with no widespread storms but potential for further escalation into evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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