Darializa Avila Chevalier leads the NY-13 Democratic primary market at 62.5% implied probability because her campaign has drawn significant progressive support and media focus ahead of the June 23 vote, including an endorsement from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani that elevated national attention on the contest. The five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat trails at 34% amid a competitive race centered on Harlem turnout, campaign finance differences, and positions on issues like immigration enforcement. Recent candidate forums have highlighted contrasts between the establishment-backed incumbent and the democratic socialist challenger, while minor candidates remain under 1%. Trader positioning reflects the primary's late-stage dynamics, with Chevalier's visibility and base mobilization appearing to shift momentum in the final weeks.