The strong Democratic lean of Oregon’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+24 and the incumbent’s 2024 victory margin of nearly 68 percent, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Maxine Dexter secured her party’s nomination decisively in the May 2026 primary with roughly 90 percent of the vote, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed, leaving the general election contest on November 3 without notable recent polling shifts or fundraising surges that might narrow the gap. Historical base rates for such solidly partisan seats further align with current implied probabilities from skin-in-the-game trading. A significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$750 交易量
94%
共和党
$3,138 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Oregon’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+24 and the incumbent’s 2024 victory margin of nearly 68 percent, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Maxine Dexter secured her party’s nomination decisively in the May 2026 primary with roughly 90 percent of the vote, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed, leaving the general election contest on November 3 without notable recent polling shifts or fundraising surges that might narrow the gap. Historical base rates for such solidly partisan seats further align with current implied probabilities from skin-in-the-game trading. A significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$3,887结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Oregon’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+24 and the incumbent’s 2024 victory margin of nearly 68 percent, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Maxine Dexter secured her party’s nomination decisively in the May 2026 primary with roughly 90 percent of the vote, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed, leaving the general election contest on November 3 without notable recent polling shifts or fundraising surges that might narrow the gap. Historical base rates for such solidly partisan seats further align with current implied probabilities from skin-in-the-game trading. A significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,887结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Oregon’s 3rd congressional district, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+24 and the incumbent’s 2024 victory margin of nearly 68 percent, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Maxine Dexter secured her party’s nomination decisively in the May 2026 primary with roughly 90 percent of the vote, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed, leaving the general election contest on November 3 without notable recent polling shifts or fundraising surges that might narrow the gap. Historical base rates for such solidly partisan seats further align with current implied probabilities from skin-in-the-game trading. A significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave, would be required to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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