The fragmented field of over a dozen candidates for Sergipe’s two Senate seats has kept the contest for second place tightly contested, with recent polls from Real Time Big Data and other firms showing the top contenders clustered between 9% and 17% in stimulated first- and second-round voting. Incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) and emerging names such as Iran Barbosa, André Moura (União), Delegado André David (Republicanos), and Eduardo Amorim continue to trade near or below 45% in the market, reflecting the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond the likely leader. Voter volatility in a state where two-vote mechanics reward coalition-building, combined with ongoing party conventions and limited name recognition for many challengers, sustains the uncertainty. Late polling shifts, formal alliances, or turnout differences among key regions could still reorder the lower tier before October.