Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pass 3-6% 36%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 交易量
$10,759 交易量
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
4%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
9%
Pass 6-9%
24%
Pass 3-6%
36%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
18%
Pass 3-6% 36%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 交易量
$10,759 交易量
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
$1,232 交易量
4%
Pass 12-15%
$477 交易量
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 交易量
9%
Pass 6-9%
$418 交易量
24%
Pass 3-6%
$1,233 交易量
36%
Pass <3%
$464 交易量
17%
No Pass
$5,622 交易量
18%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
交易量
$10,759结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
交易量
$10,759结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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