Turkey’s ruling AK Party and President Erdoğan have repeatedly signaled intent for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with parliamentary commissions preparing proposals and the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026-2027. However, the governing bloc holds only 321 of 600 seats, short of the threshold needed for referendum approval without broader opposition backing. Recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament laws and judicial packages addressing alimony and court procedures rather than constitutional drafting or votes. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no formal bill or broad coalition emerging, traders assign 91.5% probability to no meaningful movement this year, reflecting the gap between stated goals and procedural realities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AK Party and President Erdoğan have repeatedly signaled intent for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with parliamentary commissions preparing proposals and the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026-2027. However, the governing bloc holds only 321 of 600 seats, short of the threshold needed for referendum approval without broader opposition backing. Recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament laws and judicial packages addressing alimony and court procedures rather than constitutional drafting or votes. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no formal bill or broad coalition emerging, traders assign 91.5% probability to no meaningful movement this year, reflecting the gap between stated goals and procedural realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AK Party and President Erdoğan have repeatedly signaled intent for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with parliamentary commissions preparing proposals and the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026-2027. However, the governing bloc holds only 321 of 600 seats, short of the threshold needed for referendum approval without broader opposition backing. Recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament laws and judicial packages addressing alimony and court procedures rather than constitutional drafting or votes. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no formal bill or broad coalition emerging, traders assign 91.5% probability to no meaningful movement this year, reflecting the gap between stated goals and procedural realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETTurkey’s ruling AK Party and President Erdoğan have repeatedly signaled intent for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with parliamentary commissions preparing proposals and the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026-2027. However, the governing bloc holds only 321 of 600 seats, short of the threshold needed for referendum approval without broader opposition backing. Recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament laws and judicial packages addressing alimony and court procedures rather than constitutional drafting or votes. With limited time remaining in 2026 and no formal bill or broad coalition emerging, traders assign 91.5% probability to no meaningful movement this year, reflecting the gap between stated goals and procedural realities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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