President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s presidential system, with the next scheduled elections set for May of that year. The ruling alliance holds roughly 328 parliamentary seats, short of the 360 needed to call an early vote that would allow him to stand again, while sustained legal actions have weakened and fragmented the main opposition since 2024. Recent months have seen continued coalition-building efforts, including legislation tied to the Kurdish issue, alongside discussions of electoral rule changes, but no parliamentary majority or institutional trigger exists for removal before year-end. Trader consensus at 95.5% for “No” therefore reflects the absence of any near-term constitutional, electoral, or political pathway to Erdoğan leaving office. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a documented health event causing incapacity or an unforeseen parliamentary realignment enabling a snap election, though neither shows concrete momentum in the current four-month window.