Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election no later than May 2028, providing the primary basis for the 89.5% implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026. No snap election has been called, and official statements indicate continuity of leadership absent unforeseen developments. Recent months have featured internal AKP discussions on succession and occasional health speculation, alongside opposition primary activity, yet these have not altered the institutional timeline or produced concrete steps toward early departure. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to removal before the end of the term, including the absence of parliamentary moves for early polls or confirmed resignation signals. Late developments such as a sudden health event or legislative change could still shift positioning.