**Traders price the "No" outcome at 77% because Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds only 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment.** Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join any drafting commission, blocking the cross-party consensus required for progress. Although President Erdoğan appointed a legal drafting team in 2025 and his advisers have signaled intent for a referendum-backed new constitution, recent developments—including the PKK peace process and Erdoğan’s September 2026 remarks on “approaching elections”—have shifted focus toward possible early polls under Article 116 rather than a 2026 referendum announcement. With months remaining until year-end and no qualifying announcement issued, the current parliamentary arithmetic and partisan standoff sustain the market’s assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于23% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
23% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders price the "No" outcome at 77% because Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds only 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment.** Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join any drafting commission, blocking the cross-party consensus required for progress. Although President Erdoğan appointed a legal drafting team in 2025 and his advisers have signaled intent for a referendum-backed new constitution, recent developments—including the PKK peace process and Erdoğan’s September 2026 remarks on “approaching elections”—have shifted focus toward possible early polls under Article 116 rather than a 2026 referendum announcement. With months remaining until year-end and no qualifying announcement issued, the current parliamentary arithmetic and partisan standoff sustain the market’s assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,921结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders price the "No" outcome at 77% because Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds only 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment.** Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join any drafting commission, blocking the cross-party consensus required for progress. Although President Erdoğan appointed a legal drafting team in 2025 and his advisers have signaled intent for a referendum-backed new constitution, recent developments—including the PKK peace process and Erdoğan’s September 2026 remarks on “approaching elections”—have shifted focus toward possible early polls under Article 116 rather than a 2026 referendum announcement. With months remaining until year-end and no qualifying announcement issued, the current parliamentary arithmetic and partisan standoff sustain the market’s assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,921结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET**Traders price the "No" outcome at 77% because Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds only 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment.** Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join any drafting commission, blocking the cross-party consensus required for progress. Although President Erdoğan appointed a legal drafting team in 2025 and his advisers have signaled intent for a referendum-backed new constitution, recent developments—including the PKK peace process and Erdoğan’s September 2026 remarks on “approaching elections”—have shifted focus toward possible early polls under Article 116 rather than a 2026 referendum announcement. With months remaining until year-end and no qualifying announcement issued, the current parliamentary arithmetic and partisan standoff sustain the market’s assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题