Taylor Swift's commanding 60.5% implied probability reflects her sustained commercial dominance, record-breaking streaming metrics, and cultural resonance heading into the 2026 VMAs, reinforced by consistent chart performance and industry awards momentum. The broad field of other contenders clustered near 50% signals trader uncertainty amid a competitive landscape where recent album releases, tour announcements, and viral moments could shift voter sentiment. Lower odds for Ariana Grande (19%), Madonna (13%), Sabrina Carpenter (13%), Bruno Mars (12.5%), and Morgan Wallen (12.5%) align with comparatively lighter recent output or chart trajectories relative to Swift's established frontrunner narrative. Key upcoming catalysts include final nomination announcements and any late-cycle promotional pushes that could influence academy and public voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年度VMA艺术家
2026年度VMA艺术家
泰勒·斯威夫特 59%
Ariana Grande 19%
Bruno Mars 19%
Sabrina Carpenter 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
泰勒·斯威夫特
59%
Ariana Grande
19%
Bruno Mars
19%
Sabrina Carpenter
14%
麦当娜
14%
摩根·沃伦
8%
泰勒·斯威夫特 59%
Ariana Grande 19%
Bruno Mars 19%
Sabrina Carpenter 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
泰勒·斯威夫特
$20 交易量
59%
Ariana Grande
$1 交易量
19%
Bruno Mars
$1 交易量
19%
Sabrina Carpenter
$0 交易量
14%
麦当娜
$0 交易量
14%
摩根·沃伦
$1 交易量
8%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift's commanding 60.5% implied probability reflects her sustained commercial dominance, record-breaking streaming metrics, and cultural resonance heading into the 2026 VMAs, reinforced by consistent chart performance and industry awards momentum. The broad field of other contenders clustered near 50% signals trader uncertainty amid a competitive landscape where recent album releases, tour announcements, and viral moments could shift voter sentiment. Lower odds for Ariana Grande (19%), Madonna (13%), Sabrina Carpenter (13%), Bruno Mars (12.5%), and Morgan Wallen (12.5%) align with comparatively lighter recent output or chart trajectories relative to Swift's established frontrunner narrative. Key upcoming catalysts include final nomination announcements and any late-cycle promotional pushes that could influence academy and public voting patterns.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$23结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETThe MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift's commanding 60.5% implied probability reflects her sustained commercial dominance, record-breaking streaming metrics, and cultural resonance heading into the 2026 VMAs, reinforced by consistent chart performance and industry awards momentum. The broad field of other contenders clustered near 50% signals trader uncertainty amid a competitive landscape where recent album releases, tour announcements, and viral moments could shift voter sentiment. Lower odds for Ariana Grande (19%), Madonna (13%), Sabrina Carpenter (13%), Bruno Mars (12.5%), and Morgan Wallen (12.5%) align with comparatively lighter recent output or chart trajectories relative to Swift's established frontrunner narrative. Key upcoming catalysts include final nomination announcements and any late-cycle promotional pushes that could influence academy and public voting patterns.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$23结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETTaylor Swift's commanding 60.5% implied probability reflects her sustained commercial dominance, record-breaking streaming metrics, and cultural resonance heading into the 2026 VMAs, reinforced by consistent chart performance and industry awards momentum. The broad field of other contenders clustered near 50% signals trader uncertainty amid a competitive landscape where recent album releases, tour announcements, and viral moments could shift voter sentiment. Lower odds for Ariana Grande (19%), Madonna (13%), Sabrina Carpenter (13%), Bruno Mars (12.5%), and Morgan Wallen (12.5%) align with comparatively lighter recent output or chart trajectories relative to Swift's established frontrunner narrative. Key upcoming catalysts include final nomination announcements and any late-cycle promotional pushes that could influence academy and public voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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