US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, command centers, and leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent developments include a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since early April to counter Iranian mining and disruptions, alongside precision strikes suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities as of April 11–13. A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7 faces strain from Hezbollah's renewed attacks on Israel and Iranian strikes on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, which provide logistical support including US launch bases but no direct military action. Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled this week could de-escalate, influencing whether additional nations join operations by April 30 amid diplomatic mediation efforts by China and Russia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,771,351 交易量
2026-04-30
阿联酋
6%
沙特阿拉伯
5%
科威特
3%
卡塔尔
2%
土耳其
2%
任何欧盟国家
2%
英国
2%
巴林
1%
约旦
1%
阿曼
1%
德国
1%
加拿大
<1%
法国
<1%
$2,771,351 交易量
阿联酋
$1,352,512 交易量
6%
沙特阿拉伯
$511,416 交易量
5%
科威特
$115,154 交易量
3%
卡塔尔
$27,577 交易量
2%
土耳其
$68,992 交易量
2%
任何欧盟国家
$44,927 交易量
2%
英国
$220,828 交易量
2%
巴林
$45,115 交易量
1%
约旦
$19,699 交易量
1%
阿曼
$30,136 交易量
1%
德国
$120,121 交易量
1%
加拿大
$39,886 交易量
<1%
法国
$174,988 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, command centers, and leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent developments include a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since early April to counter Iranian mining and disruptions, alongside precision strikes suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities as of April 11–13. A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7 faces strain from Hezbollah's renewed attacks on Israel and Iranian strikes on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, which provide logistical support including US launch bases but no direct military action. Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled this week could de-escalate, influencing whether additional nations join operations by April 30 amid diplomatic mediation efforts by China and Russia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,771,351结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, command centers, and leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent developments include a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since early April to counter Iranian mining and disruptions, alongside precision strikes suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities as of April 11–13. A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7 faces strain from Hezbollah's renewed attacks on Israel and Iranian strikes on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, which provide logistical support including US launch bases but no direct military action. Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled this week could de-escalate, influencing whether additional nations join operations by April 30 amid diplomatic mediation efforts by China and Russia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,771,351结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, command centers, and leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Recent developments include a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since early April to counter Iranian mining and disruptions, alongside precision strikes suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities as of April 11–13. A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7 faces strain from Hezbollah's renewed attacks on Israel and Iranian strikes on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, which provide logistical support including US launch bases but no direct military action. Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled this week could de-escalate, influencing whether additional nations join operations by April 30 amid diplomatic mediation efforts by China and Russia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题