President Trump's announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 drove trader consensus to a 61% implied probability for his endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, amid mixed signals on the conflict's inclusion. Initial reports indicated Trump personally agreed to encompass Lebanon—later contradicted by his explicit denial following a Netanyahu phone call, with both US and Israeli officials clarifying the truce excludes Hezbollah operations. Trump urged Netanyahu to scale back strikes to safeguard the fragile Iran deal, while Netanyahu authorized direct Lebanon talks and Israel continued targeted actions against Hezbollah targets. VP Vance's leadership of Iran negotiations in Pakistan and trilateral diplomacy signal de-escalation potential, though Israeli security priorities and Hezbollah's proxy role sustain uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$20,940 交易量
最新
$20,940 交易量
2026-04-30
最新
$20,940 交易量
最新
$20,940 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 drove trader consensus to a 61% implied probability for his endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, amid mixed signals on the conflict's inclusion. Initial reports indicated Trump personally agreed to encompass Lebanon—later contradicted by his explicit denial following a Netanyahu phone call, with both US and Israeli officials clarifying the truce excludes Hezbollah operations. Trump urged Netanyahu to scale back strikes to safeguard the fragile Iran deal, while Netanyahu authorized direct Lebanon talks and Israel continued targeted actions against Hezbollah targets. VP Vance's leadership of Iran negotiations in Pakistan and trilateral diplomacy signal de-escalation potential, though Israeli security priorities and Hezbollah's proxy role sustain uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
市场开放时间： Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
交易量
$20,940结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 drove trader consensus to a 61% implied probability for his endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, amid mixed signals on the conflict's inclusion. Initial reports indicated Trump personally agreed to encompass Lebanon—later contradicted by his explicit denial following a Netanyahu phone call, with both US and Israeli officials clarifying the truce excludes Hezbollah operations. Trump urged Netanyahu to scale back strikes to safeguard the fragile Iran deal, while Netanyahu authorized direct Lebanon talks and Israel continued targeted actions against Hezbollah targets. VP Vance's leadership of Iran negotiations in Pakistan and trilateral diplomacy signal de-escalation potential, though Israeli security priorities and Hezbollah's proxy role sustain uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
交易量
$20,940结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 drove trader consensus to a 61% implied probability for his endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, amid mixed signals on the conflict's inclusion. Initial reports indicated Trump personally agreed to encompass Lebanon—later contradicted by his explicit denial following a Netanyahu phone call, with both US and Israeli officials clarifying the truce excludes Hezbollah operations. Trump urged Netanyahu to scale back strikes to safeguard the fragile Iran deal, while Netanyahu authorized direct Lebanon talks and Israel continued targeted actions against Hezbollah targets. VP Vance's leadership of Iran negotiations in Pakistan and trilateral diplomacy signal de-escalation potential, though Israeli security priorities and Hezbollah's proxy role sustain uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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