A US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting direct hostilities after a month-long war sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, air defenses, energy infrastructure, and IRGC leadership—including the confirmed killing of intelligence chief Majid Khademi. Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages on Israeli cities and US regional bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The truce faces immediate tests, as Israel launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon hours later, and Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled readiness for renewed military action if Iranian concessions falter. Traders eye Hormuz reopening and truce expiration around April 22 for escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
$11,748 交易量
2026-04-21
April 14
48%
April 21
66%
$11,748 交易量
April 14
$4,336 交易量
48%
April 21
$7,412 交易量
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting direct hostilities after a month-long war sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, air defenses, energy infrastructure, and IRGC leadership—including the confirmed killing of intelligence chief Majid Khademi. Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages on Israeli cities and US regional bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The truce faces immediate tests, as Israel launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon hours later, and Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled readiness for renewed military action if Iranian concessions falter. Traders eye Hormuz reopening and truce expiration around April 22 for escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
交易量
$11,748结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting direct hostilities after a month-long war sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, air defenses, energy infrastructure, and IRGC leadership—including the confirmed killing of intelligence chief Majid Khademi. Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages on Israeli cities and US regional bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The truce faces immediate tests, as Israel launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon hours later, and Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled readiness for renewed military action if Iranian concessions falter. Traders eye Hormuz reopening and truce expiration around April 22 for escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$11,748结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting direct hostilities after a month-long war sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, air defenses, energy infrastructure, and IRGC leadership—including the confirmed killing of intelligence chief Majid Khademi. Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages on Israeli cities and US regional bases, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The truce faces immediate tests, as Israel launched massive airstrikes on Lebanon hours later, and Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled readiness for renewed military action if Iranian concessions falter. Traders eye Hormuz reopening and truce expiration around April 22 for escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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