Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, have escalated after Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries ship and its massive drone-missile barrage on Israel, followed by Israel's April 19 retaliatory airstrike near Isfahan, which Iran downplayed to avoid further escalation. The US Navy, headquartered at the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, conducts routine freedom of navigation transits, with destroyers like USS Paul Hamilton passing through as recently as late March amid Houthi threats in the Red Sea. European partners in the EMASOH mission—France, UK, Netherlands—sustain patrols, while China and Russia show sporadic presence. Traders eye potential US-led reinforcements or Iranian blockades before April 30 resolution, with diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran key to naval deployments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
Apr 30, 2026
美国
33%
France
24%
United Kingdom
23%
India
22%
Netherlands
21%
Pakistan
21%
Japan
21%
Greece
20%
Italy
14%
Canada
11%
Germany
9%
$0.00 交易量
美国
$0 交易量
33%
France
$0 交易量
24%
United Kingdom
$0 交易量
23%
India
$0 交易量
22%
Netherlands
$0 交易量
21%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
21%
Japan
$0 交易量
21%
Greece
$0 交易量
20%
Italy
$0 交易量
14%
Canada
$0 交易量
11%
Germany
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, have escalated after Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries ship and its massive drone-missile barrage on Israel, followed by Israel's April 19 retaliatory airstrike near Isfahan, which Iran downplayed to avoid further escalation. The US Navy, headquartered at the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, conducts routine freedom of navigation transits, with destroyers like USS Paul Hamilton passing through as recently as late March amid Houthi threats in the Red Sea. European partners in the EMASOH mission—France, UK, Netherlands—sustain patrols, while China and Russia show sporadic presence. Traders eye potential US-led reinforcements or Iranian blockades before April 30 resolution, with diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran key to naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, have escalated after Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries ship and its massive drone-missile barrage on Israel, followed by Israel's April 19 retaliatory airstrike near Isfahan, which Iran downplayed to avoid further escalation. The US Navy, headquartered at the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, conducts routine freedom of navigation transits, with destroyers like USS Paul Hamilton passing through as recently as late March amid Houthi threats in the Red Sea. European partners in the EMASOH mission—France, UK, Netherlands—sustain patrols, while China and Russia show sporadic presence. Traders eye potential US-led reinforcements or Iranian blockades before April 30 resolution, with diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran key to naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, have escalated after Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries ship and its massive drone-missile barrage on Israel, followed by Israel's April 19 retaliatory airstrike near Isfahan, which Iran downplayed to avoid further escalation. The US Navy, headquartered at the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, conducts routine freedom of navigation transits, with destroyers like USS Paul Hamilton passing through as recently as late March amid Houthi threats in the Red Sea. European partners in the EMASOH mission—France, UK, Netherlands—sustain patrols, while China and Russia show sporadic presence. Traders eye potential US-led reinforcements or Iranian blockades before April 30 resolution, with diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran key to naval deployments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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