Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 followed U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and injured Mojtaba himself. Traders assess the probability he will leave the country by tracking ongoing regional conflict, security threats to regime figures, and persistent questions about his health and location. Since his selection, Mojtaba has issued statements via state media and directed IRGC preparations amid repeated U.S. warnings and reported breaches of understandings, yet he has avoided confirmed public appearances except for an undated August 2026 video released to address rumors. Speculation centers on possible relocation for protection—potentially to allied territory such as Russia—while structural factors including Assembly of Experts processes, succession sensitivities, and wartime command continuity continue to shape assessments of whether verifiable departure occurs before market deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$103,854 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$103,854 交易量
8月31日
$61,952 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 followed U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and injured Mojtaba himself. Traders assess the probability he will leave the country by tracking ongoing regional conflict, security threats to regime figures, and persistent questions about his health and location. Since his selection, Mojtaba has issued statements via state media and directed IRGC preparations amid repeated U.S. warnings and reported breaches of understandings, yet he has avoided confirmed public appearances except for an undated August 2026 video released to address rumors. Speculation centers on possible relocation for protection—potentially to allied territory such as Russia—while structural factors including Assembly of Experts processes, succession sensitivities, and wartime command continuity continue to shape assessments of whether verifiable departure occurs before market deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
交易量
$103,854结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 followed U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and injured Mojtaba himself. Traders assess the probability he will leave the country by tracking ongoing regional conflict, security threats to regime figures, and persistent questions about his health and location. Since his selection, Mojtaba has issued statements via state media and directed IRGC preparations amid repeated U.S. warnings and reported breaches of understandings, yet he has avoided confirmed public appearances except for an undated August 2026 video released to address rumors. Speculation centers on possible relocation for protection—potentially to allied territory such as Russia—while structural factors including Assembly of Experts processes, succession sensitivities, and wartime command continuity continue to shape assessments of whether verifiable departure occurs before market deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$103,854结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 followed U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and injured Mojtaba himself. Traders assess the probability he will leave the country by tracking ongoing regional conflict, security threats to regime figures, and persistent questions about his health and location. Since his selection, Mojtaba has issued statements via state media and directed IRGC preparations amid repeated U.S. warnings and reported breaches of understandings, yet he has avoided confirmed public appearances except for an undated August 2026 video released to address rumors. Speculation centers on possible relocation for protection—potentially to allied territory such as Russia—while structural factors including Assembly of Experts processes, succession sensitivities, and wartime command continuity continue to shape assessments of whether verifiable departure occurs before market deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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