Trump’s approval ratings have remained subdued through mid-2026, averaging in the mid-to-high 30s with net figures near -20 across major aggregators, reflecting sustained pressure from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February and associated rises in gasoline prices. Polls show particularly weak marks on the economy and cost of living, with recent surveys recording record or near-record lows on those issues and modest erosion even among Republicans. Traders assessing the year’s peak therefore weigh the limited rebound potential ahead of November midterms against possible shifts from any de-escalation in foreign policy, further tariff or trade adjustments, or changes in consumer sentiment. Historical patterns for second-term presidents suggest room for modest movement, though current issue-specific numbers continue to anchor expectations for limited upside.