Current ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Helsinki on August 29 likely falling between 14–16°C under mostly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds near 10–15 km/h. This range reflects modest uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point depression overnight, where partial cloud cover could limit temperature drops while clearer intervals allow greater heat loss from the surface. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across 11–16°C bins because short-term model spread remains wide near these thresholds, with limited recent shifts in upstream pressure patterns or advection of milder Baltic air. Updated runs tomorrow morning will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.