**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and Met Office indicate Houston’s overnight low on August 29 will settle in the upper 70s, with consensus pointing to 78–81 °F.** Clear to mostly clear skies under high pressure, light southerly winds (5–10 mph), and high dew points near 72–75 °F limit radiative cooling while the urban heat island and residual daytime heat keep temperatures from dropping further. These conditions produce a narrow range of possible minima, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 78–81 °F bins. Minor differences among forecast runs—such as exact timing of any residual cloud or slight variations in wind—create the small probability spread traders have priced in. Historical late-August lows average near 75–76 °F, so the current warmer setup reflects the absence of stronger northerly flow or drier air that would allow deeper cooling. Upcoming hourly observations from Houston’s official stations will determine the precise recorded minimum and resolve the market.