Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional increase by year-end 2026. The median dot plot rose to 4.1%, with most participants now seeing another 25-basis-point move, driven by August PCE inflation near 3.7% headline and 3.4% core alongside resilient GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target have reinforced the hawkish tilt. Markets currently embed this path in futures pricing, with upcoming CPI, employment data, and the October FOMC meeting serving as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or adjust the 85.5% implied probability for another hike.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
86% Chance
$80,479 Vol.
$80,479 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
Ja
86% Chance
$80,479 Vol.
$80,479 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional increase by year-end 2026. The median dot plot rose to 4.1%, with most participants now seeing another 25-basis-point move, driven by August PCE inflation near 3.7% headline and 3.4% core alongside resilient GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target have reinforced the hawkish tilt. Markets currently embed this path in futures pricing, with upcoming CPI, employment data, and the October FOMC meeting serving as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or adjust the 85.5% implied probability for another hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$80,479Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional increase by year-end 2026. The median dot plot rose to 4.1%, with most participants now seeing another 25-basis-point move, driven by August PCE inflation near 3.7% headline and 3.4% core alongside resilient GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target have reinforced the hawkish tilt. Markets currently embed this path in futures pricing, with upcoming CPI, employment data, and the October FOMC meeting serving as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or adjust the 85.5% implied probability for another hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$80,479Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional increase by year-end 2026. The median dot plot rose to 4.1%, with most participants now seeing another 25-basis-point move, driven by August PCE inflation near 3.7% headline and 3.4% core alongside resilient GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target have reinforced the hawkish tilt. Markets currently embed this path in futures pricing, with upcoming CPI, employment data, and the October FOMC meeting serving as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or adjust the 85.5% implied probability for another hike.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen