Persistent inflation, with August core PCE near 3.4% and headline readings revised higher, combined with the Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16 hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of another rate increase before year-end. The updated dot plot, showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, signals the Committee's focus on returning inflation to target amid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect aligned trader sentiment from real capital at risk. Softer incoming inflation prints or a sharper labor market slowdown ahead of the October and December FOMC meetings represent the main scenarios that could alter this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
91% Chance
$149,122 Vol.
$149,122 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
Ja
91% Chance
$149,122 Vol.
$149,122 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, with August core PCE near 3.4% and headline readings revised higher, combined with the Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16 hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of another rate increase before year-end. The updated dot plot, showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, signals the Committee's focus on returning inflation to target amid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect aligned trader sentiment from real capital at risk. Softer incoming inflation prints or a sharper labor market slowdown ahead of the October and December FOMC meetings represent the main scenarios that could alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$149,122Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, with August core PCE near 3.4% and headline readings revised higher, combined with the Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16 hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of another rate increase before year-end. The updated dot plot, showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, signals the Committee's focus on returning inflation to target amid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect aligned trader sentiment from real capital at risk. Softer incoming inflation prints or a sharper labor market slowdown ahead of the October and December FOMC meetings represent the main scenarios that could alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070be91...Persistent inflation, with August core PCE near 3.4% and headline readings revised higher, combined with the Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16 hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of another rate increase before year-end. The updated dot plot, showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, signals the Committee's focus on returning inflation to target amid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Two-year Treasury yields above 4.7% reflect aligned trader sentiment from real capital at risk. Softer incoming inflation prints or a sharper labor market slowdown ahead of the October and December FOMC meetings represent the main scenarios that could alter this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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