Recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote shows a technical tie between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with both typically in the mid-40s and minor candidates below 2%. Jerônimo’s approval ratings near 52-57% and the PT’s continuous hold on the governorship since 2007 underpin trader consensus favoring his re-election bid. ACM Neto’s support has narrowed from earlier leads but remains competitive in runoff simulations. No major shifts from debates, endorsements, or campaign events have altered the balance in the past month, leaving the outcome sensitive to final turnout and late momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJerônimo Rodrigues 61%
ACM Neto 37%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,608 Vol.
$150,608 Vol.

Jerônimo Rodrigues
61%

ACM Neto
37%

João Roma
<1%

José Carlos Aleluia
<1%

Kleber Rosa
<1%

Rui Costa
<1%

Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 61%
ACM Neto 37%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$150,608 Vol.
$150,608 Vol.

Jerônimo Rodrigues
61%

ACM Neto
37%

João Roma
<1%

José Carlos Aleluia
<1%

Kleber Rosa
<1%

Rui Costa
<1%

Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote shows a technical tie between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with both typically in the mid-40s and minor candidates below 2%. Jerônimo’s approval ratings near 52-57% and the PT’s continuous hold on the governorship since 2007 underpin trader consensus favoring his re-election bid. ACM Neto’s support has narrowed from earlier leads but remains competitive in runoff simulations. No major shifts from debates, endorsements, or campaign events have altered the balance in the past month, leaving the outcome sensitive to final turnout and late momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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