Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California’s 21st congressional district. The Central Valley seat, which includes portions of Fresno and Tulare counties, carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index and supported the Democratic presidential nominee by roughly six points in 2024. Costa’s prior 52.6% general-election margin and strong fundraising reflect the district’s modest Democratic lean and his long tenure since 2005. Forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Late developments such as major national swings, candidate health events, or significant scandals would be required to alter the outcome in the remaining weeks before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-21 Wahlsieger
CA-21 Wahlsieger
$26,789 Vol.
$26,789 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
93%
Republikanische Partei
8%
$26,789 Vol.
$26,789 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$14,977 Vol.
93%
Republikanische Partei
$11,812 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California’s 21st congressional district. The Central Valley seat, which includes portions of Fresno and Tulare counties, carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index and supported the Democratic presidential nominee by roughly six points in 2024. Costa’s prior 52.6% general-election margin and strong fundraising reflect the district’s modest Democratic lean and his long tenure since 2005. Forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Late developments such as major national swings, candidate health events, or significant scandals would be required to alter the outcome in the remaining weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$26,789Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California’s 21st congressional district. The Central Valley seat, which includes portions of Fresno and Tulare counties, carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index and supported the Democratic presidential nominee by roughly six points in 2024. Costa’s prior 52.6% general-election margin and strong fundraising reflect the district’s modest Democratic lean and his long tenure since 2005. Forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Late developments such as major national swings, candidate health events, or significant scandals would be required to alter the outcome in the remaining weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,789Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California’s 21st congressional district. The Central Valley seat, which includes portions of Fresno and Tulare counties, carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index and supported the Democratic presidential nominee by roughly six points in 2024. Costa’s prior 52.6% general-election margin and strong fundraising reflect the district’s modest Democratic lean and his long tenure since 2005. Forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Late developments such as major national swings, candidate health events, or significant scandals would be required to alter the outcome in the remaining weeks before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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