Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-31 Wahlsieger
CA-31 Wahlsieger
$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$7,679 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$8,248 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$15,927Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,927Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured the top spot in California’s June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Eric Ching to the November general election. The district’s voter registration and historical results favor Democrats by wide margins, limiting Republican prospects in a safely blue Los Angeles-area seat. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because incumbency, primary strength, and partisan composition have produced consistent double-digit leads in comparable California races. Only late-cycle developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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