Doug Ford's position as Ontario PC Party leader remains secure following the party's third consecutive majority win in the February 2025 provincial election, which has limited internal incentives for a leadership review or challenge ahead of the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Recent polling shows his personal approval falling to the low 20s amid a hotel expense scandal and broader voter dissatisfaction, with the PCs trailing the Liberals by several points. However, no organized caucus dissent, formal review process, or credible alternative candidates have emerged in 2026 reporting. Canadian provincial parties rarely force out sitting premiers shortly after election victories absent major scandals or caucus revolts, supporting the market's 78% probability that Ford completes the year in the role. Upcoming legislative sessions or fall conventions could test this stability, though no such catalysts appear imminent.