Persistent high pressure and a subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. continue to drive above-normal heat across Central Texas, positioning the market's leading 102–103°F outcome (52% implied probability) as the consensus forecast range for Austin's August 25 high. Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate daytime maxima near 103–106°F under mostly sunny skies with minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, consistent with the ongoing heat wave that produced multiple 103–105°F readings earlier in the month. Historical late-August baselines average around 94–96°F, but 2026 conditions reflect the warmer-than-normal monthly outlook, with limited model spread supporting the 100–105°F cluster that holds over 90% of trader-weighted probability. Updated forecasts from NWS Austin and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Austin am 25. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Austin am 25. August?
102-103°F 52%
104-105°F 22%
100-101°F 19%
106-107°F 8%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
95°F oder darunter
1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
7%
100-101°F
19%
102-103°F
52%
104-105°F
22%
106-107°F
8%
108-109°F
6%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F oder höher
1%
102-103°F 52%
104-105°F 22%
100-101°F 19%
106-107°F 8%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
95°F oder darunter
$5 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$47 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$100 Vol.
7%
100-101°F
$232 Vol.
19%
102-103°F
$123 Vol.
52%
104-105°F
$102 Vol.
22%
106-107°F
$108 Vol.
8%
108-109°F
$66 Vol.
6%
110-111°F
$5 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$0 Vol.
1%
114°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. continue to drive above-normal heat across Central Texas, positioning the market's leading 102–103°F outcome (52% implied probability) as the consensus forecast range for Austin's August 25 high. Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate daytime maxima near 103–106°F under mostly sunny skies with minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, consistent with the ongoing heat wave that produced multiple 103–105°F readings earlier in the month. Historical late-August baselines average around 94–96°F, but 2026 conditions reflect the warmer-than-normal monthly outlook, with limited model spread supporting the 100–105°F cluster that holds over 90% of trader-weighted probability. Updated forecasts from NWS Austin and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$789Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. continue to drive above-normal heat across Central Texas, positioning the market's leading 102–103°F outcome (52% implied probability) as the consensus forecast range for Austin's August 25 high. Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate daytime maxima near 103–106°F under mostly sunny skies with minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, consistent with the ongoing heat wave that produced multiple 103–105°F readings earlier in the month. Historical late-August baselines average around 94–96°F, but 2026 conditions reflect the warmer-than-normal monthly outlook, with limited model spread supporting the 100–105°F cluster that holds over 90% of trader-weighted probability. Updated forecasts from NWS Austin and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$789Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and a subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. continue to drive above-normal heat across Central Texas, positioning the market's leading 102–103°F outcome (52% implied probability) as the consensus forecast range for Austin's August 25 high. Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate daytime maxima near 103–106°F under mostly sunny skies with minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate temperatures, consistent with the ongoing heat wave that produced multiple 103–105°F readings earlier in the month. Historical late-August baselines average around 94–96°F, but 2026 conditions reflect the warmer-than-normal monthly outlook, with limited model spread supporting the 100–105°F cluster that holds over 90% of trader-weighted probability. Updated forecasts from NWS Austin and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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