**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on July 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 4?
96-97°F 55%
98-99°F 44%
94-95°F 3.7%
100-101°F 3.4%
NEU
$22,977 Vol.
NEU
$22,977 Vol.
4. Juli 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
55%
98-99°F
44%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 55%
98-99°F 44%
94-95°F 3.7%
100-101°F 3.4%
NEU
$22,977 Vol.
NEU
$22,977 Vol.
4. Juli 2026
89°F or below
$1,592 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,284 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$2,050 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$4,207 Vol.
55%
98-99°F
$7,130 Vol.
44%
100-101°F
$1,878 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$841 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$1,171 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$567 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$22,977Enddatum
4. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$22,977Enddatum
4. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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