Forecast models for Chengdu on August 6 indicate a humid subtropical regime with highs likely between 31–34 °C, where afternoon thunderstorms and variable cloud cover create the principal uncertainty separating the closely matched 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration highlights steering patterns and moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon that can suppress peak temperatures through evaporative cooling or allow brief clear intervals to push readings higher. Recent model runs show modest divergence on timing and intensity of convection, keeping trader consensus distributed across the narrow range while lower-probability outcomes reflect the low historical frequency of extremes above 35 °C or below 30 °C this time of year. Updated forecasts and satellite observations through the next 24 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.