Current numerical weather prediction models from authoritative agencies, including ensemble runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 31°C in Chengdu on May 22 under stable high-pressure dominance and limited warm-air advection over Sichuan province. This aligns with May climatology for the region, where afternoon highs typically range 27–33°C and rarely breach 35°C absent strong frontal systems or enhanced southerly flow. Partly cloudy conditions and moderate humidity further support the narrow 30–32°C consensus range, with official monitoring confirming no rapid intensification signals. Trader sentiment reflects this strong data convergence, though minor forecast revisions from updated model runs or localized convective activity could still shift the observed high by 1–2°C before daily resolution.