Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 18. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 18. Juli?
36°C 100.0%
32°C oder weniger <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$121,976 Vol.
$121,976 Vol.
18. Juli 2026
32°C oder weniger
Nein
33°C
Nein
34°C
Nein
35°C
Nein
36°C
Ja
37°C
Nein
38°C
Nein
39°C
Nein
40°C
Nein
41°C
Nein
42°C oder höher
Nein
36°C 100.0%
32°C oder weniger <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$121,976 Vol.
$121,976 Vol.
18. Juli 2026
32°C oder weniger
$1,182 Vol.
Nein
33°C
$1,681 Vol.
Nein
34°C
$7,653 Vol.
Nein
35°C
$39,632 Vol.
Nein
36°C
$26,909 Vol.
Ja
37°C
$32,985 Vol.
Nein
38°C
$6,316 Vol.
Nein
39°C
$4,092 Vol.
Nein
40°C
$856 Vol.
Nein
41°C
$316 Vol.
Nein
42°C oder höher
$353 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volumen
$121,976Enddatum
18. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$121,976Enddatum
18. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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