Traders see nearly even odds between a 24°C and 25°C high in Mexico City on August 26, with those outcomes together capturing over 70% of market-implied probability. This tight spread stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in peak afternoon temperatures for a high-elevation subtropical highland location during the peak of the rainy season. Afternoon convective storms, common under typical August moisture patterns, can cap daytime maxima by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation across global models create small but decisive differences near the 24–25°C threshold. Official meteorological guidance and updated runs from major forecasting centers will likely determine the final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mexiko-Stadt am 26. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Mexiko-Stadt am 26. August?
25°C 41%
24°C 32%
26°C 16%
23°C 10%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
18°C oder darunter
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
32%
25°C
41%
26°C
16%
27°C
4%
28°C oder höher
2%
25°C 41%
24°C 32%
26°C 16%
23°C 10%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
18°C oder darunter
$358 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$19 Vol.
1%
21°C
$32 Vol.
2%
22°C
$93 Vol.
4%
23°C
$321 Vol.
10%
24°C
$649 Vol.
32%
25°C
$990 Vol.
41%
26°C
$121 Vol.
16%
27°C
$50 Vol.
4%
28°C oder höher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see nearly even odds between a 24°C and 25°C high in Mexico City on August 26, with those outcomes together capturing over 70% of market-implied probability. This tight spread stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in peak afternoon temperatures for a high-elevation subtropical highland location during the peak of the rainy season. Afternoon convective storms, common under typical August moisture patterns, can cap daytime maxima by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation across global models create small but decisive differences near the 24–25°C threshold. Official meteorological guidance and updated runs from major forecasting centers will likely determine the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volumen
$2,685Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see nearly even odds between a 24°C and 25°C high in Mexico City on August 26, with those outcomes together capturing over 70% of market-implied probability. This tight spread stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in peak afternoon temperatures for a high-elevation subtropical highland location during the peak of the rainy season. Afternoon convective storms, common under typical August moisture patterns, can cap daytime maxima by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation across global models create small but decisive differences near the 24–25°C threshold. Official meteorological guidance and updated runs from major forecasting centers will likely determine the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,685Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see nearly even odds between a 24°C and 25°C high in Mexico City on August 26, with those outcomes together capturing over 70% of market-implied probability. This tight spread stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in peak afternoon temperatures for a high-elevation subtropical highland location during the peak of the rainy season. Afternoon convective storms, common under typical August moisture patterns, can cap daytime maxima by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation across global models create small but decisive differences near the 24–25°C threshold. Official meteorological guidance and updated runs from major forecasting centers will likely determine the final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen