Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Miami International Airport on August 14 points to a daytime high of 90–93 °F under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a moderate sea breeze and isolated afternoon thunderstorms, keeping the market-implied probability highest for the 92–93 °F bin at 63 %. Typical mid-August climatology shows average highs near 88–91 °F, and current steering patterns plus Gulf moisture limit significant warming, which explains why 94–95 °F holds only 19.5 % while lower bins remain under 16 %. Updated model runs through the evening of August 13 will provide the final data release before resolution.