**Persistent subtropical high pressure and warm, humid air masses are keeping overnight minima elevated across Hong Kong, positioning 28°C and 29°C as the clear market leaders for the lowest temperature on August 13.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and short-range model consensus project overnight lows of 27–29°C under mostly cloudy or showery conditions that limit radiational cooling, consistent with the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures through August–October. Typical August nocturnal minima hover near 26–27°C, but current patterns show slightly warmer residual boundary-layer air and high humidity (often 70–90%) that suppress drops below 27°C. Recent forecast updates through mid-August indicate no imminent cold surges, typhoon landfalls, or strong northerly flows that could drive cooler readings, supporting the combined 69.5% implied probability on 28–29°C. Lower outcomes (26°C or below) remain possible only with unexpected clearer skies or enhanced evaporative cooling from heavy rain, while 30°C+ would require unusually strong warm advection—both viewed as lower-probability scenarios by traders monitoring official guidance.