The close contest among 16–18°C outcomes on Polymarket stems from converging short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projecting Shanghai's March 26 high near 17°C under a mild northerly airflow with scattered clouds capping solar insolation. ECMWF's deterministic run leans warmer at 17°C, buoyed by urban heat island amplification in the megacity, while GFS variants tilt cooler toward 16°C amid potential low-level moisture and light winds reducing diurnal warming. Historical late-March highs average 15–17°C at Xujiahui station, but recent model updates highlight ensemble spread of ±1–2°C as the key differentiator, with traders eyeing final 00Z runs before official observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
17°C 31%
16°C 23%
18°C 17%
19°C 10%
$32,810 Vol.
$32,810 Vol.
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
9%
16°C
23%
17°C
31%
18°C
17%
19°C
10%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 31%
16°C 23%
18°C 17%
19°C 10%
$32,810 Vol.
$32,810 Vol.
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
9%
16°C
23%
17°C
31%
18°C
17%
19°C
10%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The close contest among 16–18°C outcomes on Polymarket stems from converging short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projecting Shanghai's March 26 high near 17°C under a mild northerly airflow with scattered clouds capping solar insolation. ECMWF's deterministic run leans warmer at 17°C, buoyed by urban heat island amplification in the megacity, while GFS variants tilt cooler toward 16°C amid potential low-level moisture and light winds reducing diurnal warming. Historical late-March highs average 15–17°C at Xujiahui station, but recent model updates highlight ensemble spread of ±1–2°C as the key differentiator, with traders eyeing final 00Z runs before official observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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