Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on March 24 at 43.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow into the Midwest, with initialized highs clustering around 54-57°F. This positions 54-55°F (26.5%) and 52-53°F (21.0%) as strong contenders amid Lake Michigan's moderating lake breeze effect, which often caps extremes in late March when climatological averages hover near 48°F. Recent 00Z model runs yesterday shifted warmer from prior cooler biases, elevating these outcomes while suppressing sub-50°F odds below 10%; watch today's 12Z updates from the National Weather Service for potential refinements as synoptic patterns lock in.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 24. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 24. März?
56°F oder höher 47%
52-53°F 21%
54-55°F 20%
50-51°F 6%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
3%
40-41°F
5%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
26%
56°F oder höher
47%
56°F oder höher 47%
52-53°F 21%
54-55°F 20%
50-51°F 6%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
3%
40-41°F
5%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
26%
56°F oder höher
47%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on March 24 at 43.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow into the Midwest, with initialized highs clustering around 54-57°F. This positions 54-55°F (26.5%) and 52-53°F (21.0%) as strong contenders amid Lake Michigan's moderating lake breeze effect, which often caps extremes in late March when climatological averages hover near 48°F. Recent 00Z model runs yesterday shifted warmer from prior cooler biases, elevating these outcomes while suppressing sub-50°F odds below 10%; watch today's 12Z updates from the National Weather Service for potential refinements as synoptic patterns lock in.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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