Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (34.5%) and 11°C (28.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 11-13°C amid mild continental air masses and weak southerly flow. Recent model runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international outlets like Ventusky show a tight spread, with diurnal highs tempered by Ankara's 938-meter elevation and partial cloud cover reducing solar insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing—favoring 12°C under clearer skies per GFS—versus cooler 11°C if low-level moisture persists, as hinted in ECMWF perturbations. Historical March 22 averages (~12°C) align closely, but short-range uncertainty keeps 13°C viable at 14.5% amid potential warm anomalies. New 12Z runs tomorrow could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$44,607 Vol.
$44,607 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$44,607 Vol.
$44,607 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
7%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (34.5%) and 11°C (28.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 11-13°C amid mild continental air masses and weak southerly flow. Recent model runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international outlets like Ventusky show a tight spread, with diurnal highs tempered by Ankara's 938-meter elevation and partial cloud cover reducing solar insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing—favoring 12°C under clearer skies per GFS—versus cooler 11°C if low-level moisture persists, as hinted in ECMWF perturbations. Historical March 22 averages (~12°C) align closely, but short-range uncertainty keeps 13°C viable at 14.5% amid potential warm anomalies. New 12Z runs tomorrow could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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