Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 23 highest temperature reflects high uncertainty in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS projections clustering around 14-16°C but showing significant spread due to conflicting jet stream patterns and potential cold air intrusions from the north. The even 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 11°C or below to 21°C or higher stem from this divergence: cooler biases in European models versus warmer GFS outliers amid variable spring frontal systems. Historical March highs in Wuhan average 15-17°C with a 3-5°C standard deviation, exacerbated by urban heat effects; traders await CMA updates and tomorrow's 12z model runs for resolution catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
11°C or below 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C or below
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
11°C or below 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
11°C or below
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 23 highest temperature reflects high uncertainty in global weather model ensembles, with ECMWF and GFS projections clustering around 14-16°C but showing significant spread due to conflicting jet stream patterns and potential cold air intrusions from the north. The even 25.5% implied probabilities across outcomes from 11°C or below to 21°C or higher stem from this divergence: cooler biases in European models versus warmer GFS outliers amid variable spring frontal systems. Historical March highs in Wuhan average 15-17°C with a 3-5°C standard deviation, exacerbated by urban heat effects; traders await CMA updates and tomorrow's 12z model runs for resolution catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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