Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS project Chengdu's highest temperature on March 21 at 18-22°C, driving the tight clustering of trader odds around these outcomes, with 19°C slightly favored at 24.5%. Recent developments, including a moderating cold front from upstream Siberian air masses and clearing skies post-rainfall, support this mild springtime range, aligning with Chengdu's historical March averages of 16-19°C maxima per China Meteorological Administration data. Differentiation among leaders stems from model spread: ECMWF leans warmer (20-22°C) due to southerly winds, while GFS variants cool to 18°C amid residual cloudiness; urban heat island effects could nudge toward 20°C+, but low-level moisture caps extremes below 24°C. Traders eye hourly observations for resolution amid 2-3°C uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
19°C 44%
18°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 24%
14°C oder weniger
6%
15°C
12%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
24%
22°C
24%
23°C
24%
24°C or higher
17%
19°C 44%
18°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 24%
14°C oder weniger
6%
15°C
12%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
24%
22°C
24%
23°C
24%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS project Chengdu's highest temperature on March 21 at 18-22°C, driving the tight clustering of trader odds around these outcomes, with 19°C slightly favored at 24.5%. Recent developments, including a moderating cold front from upstream Siberian air masses and clearing skies post-rainfall, support this mild springtime range, aligning with Chengdu's historical March averages of 16-19°C maxima per China Meteorological Administration data. Differentiation among leaders stems from model spread: ECMWF leans warmer (20-22°C) due to southerly winds, while GFS variants cool to 18°C amid residual cloudiness; urban heat island effects could nudge toward 20°C+, but low-level moisture caps extremes below 24°C. Traders eye hourly observations for resolution amid 2-3°C uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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