Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature on March 20 heavily favors 21°C at 47.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF projecting mild early-spring conditions under persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Recent observations show March 18 highs reaching 19°C and March 19 forecasts at 20°C, aligning with Chengdu's subtropical monsoon climate where March climatological highs average 17-18°C but often spike 2-4°C above normal amid reduced cloud cover. Lower odds for extremes reflect low volatility in short-range guidance, with no signals of cold fronts or heatwaves; traders eye final 00Z model runs for potential shifts toward 20-22°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chengdu am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chengdu am 20. März?
21°C 62%
24°C oder höher 49%
22°C 37%
23°C 8.5%
$15,210 Vol.
$15,210 Vol.
14°C oder niedriger
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
51%
22°C
37%
23°C
9%
24°C oder höher
49%
21°C 62%
24°C oder höher 49%
22°C 37%
23°C 8.5%
$15,210 Vol.
$15,210 Vol.
14°C oder niedriger
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
51%
22°C
37%
23°C
9%
24°C oder höher
49%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature on March 20 heavily favors 21°C at 47.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF projecting mild early-spring conditions under persistent high-pressure ridging over the Sichuan Basin. Recent observations show March 18 highs reaching 19°C and March 19 forecasts at 20°C, aligning with Chengdu's subtropical monsoon climate where March climatological highs average 17-18°C but often spike 2-4°C above normal amid reduced cloud cover. Lower odds for extremes reflect low volatility in short-range guidance, with no signals of cold fronts or heatwaves; traders eye final 00Z model runs for potential shifts toward 20-22°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen