Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 19°C (30%) and 20°C (24.5%) as Wellington's highest temperature on March 22, driven by MetService's latest forecast predicting a daytime max near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild northerly flows, tempered by coastal cloud and sea breezes. Differentiating these close outcomes are subtle model divergences: ECMWF ensembles lean slightly cooler at 19°C due to projected afternoon southerly shifts enhancing evaporation cooling, while GFS runs imply 20-21°C with sustained warmth before any front arrives. Historical March highs average 19.5°C, but low model spread (within 1-2°C) and minimal convective risk keep extremes unlikely, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 0600 UTC update for resolution cues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 22. März?
19°C 30%
20°C 25%
18°C 19%
21°C 16%
$47,007 Vol.
$47,007 Vol.
12°C oder niedriger
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
30%
20°C
25%
21°C
16%
22°C oder höher
4%
19°C 30%
20°C 25%
18°C 19%
21°C 16%
$47,007 Vol.
$47,007 Vol.
12°C oder niedriger
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
30%
20°C
25%
21°C
16%
22°C oder höher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 19°C (30%) and 20°C (24.5%) as Wellington's highest temperature on March 22, driven by MetService's latest forecast predicting a daytime max near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild northerly flows, tempered by coastal cloud and sea breezes. Differentiating these close outcomes are subtle model divergences: ECMWF ensembles lean slightly cooler at 19°C due to projected afternoon southerly shifts enhancing evaporation cooling, while GFS runs imply 20-21°C with sustained warmth before any front arrives. Historical March highs average 19.5°C, but low model spread (within 1-2°C) and minimal convective risk keep extremes unlikely, with traders eyeing tomorrow's 0600 UTC update for resolution cues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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