Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 25°C (47.5% implied probability) or 24°C (33.5%) in Shenzhen on March 21, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 24-26°C under persistent southerly winds and clear skies. Shenzhen's subtropical monsoon climate typically sees March highs averaging 23-25°C, with historical data from the China Meteorological Administration showing rare exceedances above 28°C this early in spring. Recent observations confirm a warming trend—March 20 peaked at 24°C—while high-resolution models rule out cooler snaps from northern cold air intrusions, positioning 27°C+ outcomes as lower-probability tails amid minimal convective activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 21. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 21. März?
25°C 44%
24°C 25%
27°C 22%
26°C 22%
18°C oder darunter
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
15%
23°C
17%
24°C
25%
25°C
54%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C oder höher
19%
25°C 44%
24°C 25%
27°C 22%
26°C 22%
18°C oder darunter
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
15%
23°C
17%
24°C
25%
25°C
54%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C oder höher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 25°C (47.5% implied probability) or 24°C (33.5%) in Shenzhen on March 21, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 24-26°C under persistent southerly winds and clear skies. Shenzhen's subtropical monsoon climate typically sees March highs averaging 23-25°C, with historical data from the China Meteorological Administration showing rare exceedances above 28°C this early in spring. Recent observations confirm a warming trend—March 20 peaked at 24°C—while high-resolution models rule out cooler snaps from northern cold air intrusions, positioning 27°C+ outcomes as lower-probability tails amid minimal convective activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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