Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 20 reflects extreme forecast uncertainty, with models showing a tight spread across 22–29°C as equally viable outcomes, driven by clashing GFS (bias toward 26–28°C) and ECMWF ensemble means (favoring 23–25°C). Historical data from China Meteorological Administration pegs March 20 averages at 24°C, but urban heat island effects and a lingering subtropical ridge could amplify peaks to 29°C under clear skies and southerly sea breezes. Cool outliers below 22°C hinge on unlikely frontal incursions; recent 12Z runs diverge further amid weak monsoon influences, keeping odds balanced ahead of 00Z updates critical for resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 20. März?
22°C 41%
23°C 41%
24°C 41%
25°C 41%
19°C oder darunter
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
41%
23°C
41%
24°C
41%
25°C
41%
26°C
41%
27°C
41%
28°C
41%
29°C oder höher
41%
22°C 41%
23°C 41%
24°C 41%
25°C 41%
19°C oder darunter
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
41%
23°C
41%
24°C
41%
25°C
41%
26°C
41%
27°C
41%
28°C
41%
29°C oder höher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 20 reflects extreme forecast uncertainty, with models showing a tight spread across 22–29°C as equally viable outcomes, driven by clashing GFS (bias toward 26–28°C) and ECMWF ensemble means (favoring 23–25°C). Historical data from China Meteorological Administration pegs March 20 averages at 24°C, but urban heat island effects and a lingering subtropical ridge could amplify peaks to 29°C under clear skies and southerly sea breezes. Cool outliers below 22°C hinge on unlikely frontal incursions; recent 12Z runs diverge further amid weak monsoon influences, keeping odds balanced ahead of 00Z updates critical for resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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