Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature March 22 remains tightly clustered around 20-26°C outcomes at roughly equal 25.5% implied probabilities, with 23°C edging ahead at 26%, reflecting high short-term forecast uncertainty from diverging global atmospheric models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent ensemble runs show a consensus peak near 22-24°C amid mild spring advection of continental air into the Sichuan Basin, but differentiation hinges on cloud cover from lingering frontal systems—persistent stratus could cap highs at 18-21°C via reduced insolation, while clearer skies and downslope winds might push toward 26-27°C. Chengdu's topographic fog trap adds variability, with official Chinese Meteorological Administration outlooks favoring mid-20s amid warming trends, though diurnal fluctuations keep extremes viable.