Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration point to Chengdu's March 23 maximum temperature clustering between 16-18°C, reflecting seasonal spring norms of 15-17°C amid a weak trough bringing mild southerly flow but tempered by basin topography and nighttime radiative cooling. This drives the fragmented trader sentiment, with 19°C or higher edging to 26% implied probability due to upside risks from stronger warm advection in GFS ensembles, while 13-17°C bins hover at 25.5% on historical diurnal ranges and recent model convergence. Uncertainty persists with 24-48 hour forecast divergence, as fog-prone inversions could suppress peaks below 15°C. Traders eye afternoon CMA updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
19°C or higher 26%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
26%
19°C or higher 26%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration point to Chengdu's March 23 maximum temperature clustering between 16-18°C, reflecting seasonal spring norms of 15-17°C amid a weak trough bringing mild southerly flow but tempered by basin topography and nighttime radiative cooling. This drives the fragmented trader sentiment, with 19°C or higher edging to 26% implied probability due to upside risks from stronger warm advection in GFS ensembles, while 13-17°C bins hover at 25.5% on historical diurnal ranges and recent model convergence. Uncertainty persists with 24-48 hour forecast divergence, as fog-prone inversions could suppress peaks below 15°C. Traders eye afternoon CMA updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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