Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast of a 22°C high in Taipei on March 20 anchors trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability, with 23°C at 16% reflecting minor model variability. This mild outlook stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering stable, sunny conditions and light southerly winds, aligning with seasonal norms where late March highs average 22-23°C based on 30-year climatology from historical observations. Recent data shows March 19 peaking at 23°C amid clear skies, but subtle cooling from increased cloudiness nudges odds toward 22°C per latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. Extremes like 28°C+ carry negligible probability absent any heat dome or foehn effects, with no tropical disturbances tracked by monitoring agencies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Taipeh am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Taipeh am 20. März?
22°C 84%
23°C 23%
24°C 4%
26°C 1.1%
$59,036 Vol.
$59,036 Vol.
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
84%
23°C
18%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C oder höher
<1%
22°C 84%
23°C 23%
24°C 4%
26°C 1.1%
$59,036 Vol.
$59,036 Vol.
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
84%
23°C
18%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast of a 22°C high in Taipei on March 20 anchors trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability, with 23°C at 16% reflecting minor model variability. This mild outlook stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering stable, sunny conditions and light southerly winds, aligning with seasonal norms where late March highs average 22-23°C based on 30-year climatology from historical observations. Recent data shows March 19 peaking at 23°C amid clear skies, but subtle cooling from increased cloudiness nudges odds toward 22°C per latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. Extremes like 28°C+ carry negligible probability absent any heat dome or foehn effects, with no tropical disturbances tracked by monitoring agencies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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