Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 26-27°C for Taipei on March 23, driven by the latest Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks around 26.5-27.8°C under mild southerly winds advecting warm, moist air. This edges out lower outcomes like 22°C or below (23.5% odds) due to minimal cold front risk, per recent soundings showing stable mid-levels. Differentiating the tight 26°C (25.5%) vs. 27°C (26.5%) race hinges on afternoon cloud cover variability—sparse cumulus could boost shortwave radiation for +1°C peaks, while increasing overcast from residual moisture favors the lower end. Historical March norms (avg. high ~24°C) underscore the warm anomaly, with urban heat island effects in Taipei amplifying small forecast divergences. Key watch: CWA's evening update for refined convective timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
27°C 27%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 24%
28°C 18%
22°C or below
24%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
7%
27°C 27%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 24%
28°C 18%
22°C or below
24%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 26-27°C for Taipei on March 23, driven by the latest Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks around 26.5-27.8°C under mild southerly winds advecting warm, moist air. This edges out lower outcomes like 22°C or below (23.5% odds) due to minimal cold front risk, per recent soundings showing stable mid-levels. Differentiating the tight 26°C (25.5%) vs. 27°C (26.5%) race hinges on afternoon cloud cover variability—sparse cumulus could boost shortwave radiation for +1°C peaks, while increasing overcast from residual moisture favors the lower end. Historical March norms (avg. high ~24°C) underscore the warm anomaly, with urban heat island effects in Taipei amplifying small forecast divergences. Key watch: CWA's evening update for refined convective timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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