Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 at 48% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 50-52°F amid a persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited warming potential, with 500-mb heights 50-100 meters below average, reinforcing below-normal temperatures following recent cold frontal passages. Observations from Central Park yesterday logged a high of just 48°F, aligning with this chillier pattern, while historical March 23 averages hover around 52°F—traders price in minimal upside risk from diurnal heating or offshore flow, keeping warmer bins like 58-59°F at 19% despite some model outliers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on March 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 23?
51°F or below 48%
52-53°F 18%
58-59°F 12%
56-57°F 11%
51°F or below
48%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
12%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
51°F or below 48%
52-53°F 18%
58-59°F 12%
56-57°F 11%
51°F or below
48%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
12%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 at 48% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 50-52°F amid a persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited warming potential, with 500-mb heights 50-100 meters below average, reinforcing below-normal temperatures following recent cold frontal passages. Observations from Central Park yesterday logged a high of just 48°F, aligning with this chillier pattern, while historical March 23 averages hover around 52°F—traders price in minimal upside risk from diurnal heating or offshore flow, keeping warmer bins like 58-59°F at 19% despite some model outliers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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